The Oil Depletion Protocol

Richard Heinberg

Clairview Books, 2006, 194 pp., – ISBN 9781905570041

Reviewed by David Lorimer

A Pre-Emptive Precaution

This book, subtitled ‘a plan to avert oil wars, terrorism and economic collapse’ is the sequel to the author’s two existing books about Peak Oil, which I have already reviewed in earlier issues. With petrol once more creeping up towards £1 a litre, question of oil supply and demand is once again in the public consciousness. Heinberg observes that over the last hundred years we have come to rely on cheap, abundant and convenient source of energy to fuel economic growth through expanded transport, industrial agriculture, and ever diversifying plastics and chemicals industries. However, the availability of petroleum will sooner or later go into inevitable decline, which will require vast adjustments on every level. If left to a straight competition for a declining resource, the result could be an escalation of conflict along with severe social and economic dislocation. This book addresses the issues squarely with a simple formula to cut oil imports to match depletion rates. More specifically, importers would reduce their imports by the world depletion rate, while producers would curtail their production by their national depletion rate. It is an idea originally put forward by Dr Colin Campbell, but which receives its fullest treatment here.

Heinberg quotes a report from the Royal Swedish Academy of sciences observing that two thirds of the increases and conventional oil reserves have been based on increased estimates of recovery from existing fields and only one third on discovery of new fields. This is unsustainable, ‘since 50% of the present oil production comes from giant fields, and very few such fields had been found in recent years.’ Testifying before the US Senate, and James Schlesinger he is quoted as saying: ‘we are faced with the possibility of a major economic shock and political unrest that would ensue.’ The report from the US Department of energy led by Robert Hirsch remarks that ‘the peaking of world oil production presents the US and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem’. Although nonviable mitigation options exist on both supply and demand sides, ‘they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.’ The study looks at three scenarios in which 1) action is not initiated until peaking occurs, 2) action begins 10 years before peaking and 3) and begins 20 years in advance. The important conclusion is that no preparation will result in at least 20 years of fuel shortages. Even with 10 years of preparation, a minimal 10-year shortfall is likely. In addition, early mitigation will almost certainly be less expensive. It therefore becomes an urgent matter to increase public awareness of the Peak Oil scenarios.

The main effects of an Oil Depletion Protocol would be to reduce price volatility and enable nations and industries to plan their economic future; secondly, it would reduce international competition for remaining oil resources. The psychological and political issues are similar to those of global warming emissions, namely that drastic action is unlikely to be acceptable ‘unless it is understood to be preferable to economic, social, or geopolitical harms that would far outweigh the pain or inconvenience of foregoing the portion of conventional economic growth based on the increased use of oil.’ The deeper challenge, which also applies to other depleting resources like water, is whether we can achieve the necessary degree of co-operation.

The book contains a detailed analysis of how to cope with diminishing oil supplies, with particular reference to transport, urban design and agriculture. There is also a chapter on questions and objections. The main objection concerns the timing of Peak Oil, but, as we have already seen, advance preparation will be required in any event. There is also a section on how the protocol can be adopted at national, municipal and personal levels. The one possible gap in the analysis is the rate at which renewal energy can come on stream to replace existing supplies. A recent book by Hermann Scheer - Energy Autonomy - suggests that transition of electricity supplies could be much more rapid than we currently assume, which could free up some oil capacity for transport purposes. In today’s volatile political and economic climate, it becomes even more important to anticipate disruptive trends, and this book explains an important one that will affect us all.