Science and Politics – the Issues

This is the third edition of what has become the definitive scientific book on global warming by one of the few authors who is actually in a position to give a 'complete briefing'. Among other things, Sir John is a former head of the UK Meteorological Office and Chairman of the Scientific Assessment Working Group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The first edition of this book appeared ten years ago, and it is a tribute to the growth in the field that the current edition is nearly twice as long. In addition, it has been written in a way that can both appeal to the general reader and be used by the student - there are research questions at the end of each chapter.

Sir John covers every conceivable aspect of global warming, clarifying and illustrating his argument with a wealth of diagrams, charts and graphs, as well as providing questions for students at the end of each chapter. The book as a whole is very well set out and makes use of the latest scientific findings. He remarks in his new introduction that the main messages about human-induced climate change and its impact has not changed, but that a more detailed scientific understanding has been obtained. Sir John covers global warming within the overall context of the history of climate change, and explains the ways in which climate is now modelled before moving on to the detailed impacts of climate change, the question of uncertainty, then principles and strategies for international action. He ends with a detailed chapter on energy and transport for the future and considers the growing awareness of this and other global problems.

This year has seen a raising of awareness of climate change and its implications, including arguments about the scientific background of The Day After Tomorrow and the likelihood of a relatively sudden halt to the Gulf Stream. The difficulty, as Sir John points out, is that this is a ‘singularity’ that might occur within a complex system. We know the causal process and likely impacts but cannot accurately predict its actual occurrence. However, we do know what policies will make it more likely to happen, and have detailed scientific data on risk assessment as well as philosophical tools like the precautionary principle.

Climate change literally conjures up the so-called boiling frog syndrome where the slow heating of the pot means that the frog does not seek to escape until it is too late. We too have little idea about when it will be too late, which means that those advocating the precautionary principle suggest that we should jump out straight away, even if this is a drastic move. Here the analogy breaks down as we are in (or on) the only pot available! We read that radical policy changes are required but know that they are unlikely to be adopted in a widespread fashion before a much larger catastrophes supervene.

Sir John has his own ideas on the action required, and sets these out (pp. 263-4). If we had a Parliament of the Earth, these measures would surely be debated and adopted in some form. He goes further in his discussion of energy and transport for the future, since world energy supply and demand is crucial, especially within our current economic model. He discusses the whole gamut of approaches, including renewables and nuclear power, whose outlook he thinks depends largely on how the industry deals with safety concerns, as well as the relative cost in relation to other sources. In the end it comes down to individual and collective responsibility and choice, as an illustration from a speech by Kofi Annan demonstrates. We have the necessary briefing, but can we generate the necessary political will? If you read just one book on climate change, this has to be it.