Possibilities for the future human situation can be considered and presented in various ways. Futures studies is an attempt to apply scientific and other systematic thought to the study of future possibilities, but inevitably has to cope with lesser or greater uncertainties about what forms future events will actually take. Predictions are attempts to forecast the future by making projections or extrapolations from current trends; they are inevitably less accurate the farther ahead they try to go, and the more unstable the current situation from which they are being made. Futures studies prefers to develop scenarios of possible futures, each of which qualitatively describes a specific alternative type of possible future without claiming to be a prediction. Visions of the future express people's hopes about preferred futures, and may sometimes be based on especially attractive scenarios; by providing aims, goals, and objectives, they can be used to guide human ideas and activities towards the fulfilment of their purposes. The key texts provide examples of all four approaches to human futures. Prophecies using psychic faculties are beyond the scope of this article!
As thinking about the future is inevitable, it is better to do it consciously, rather than refuse to attempt it because it seems too difficult. The considerable difficulties of thinking about the future range from philosophical debates about humanity's ability to influence the course of history to the poor record of forecasting so far. Too often, futures thinking lacks respectability and credibility because of the problems that it faces. As H. G. Wells noted in 1932, we have many historians but few professors of foresight; indeed, there were none in his day. During recent decades, many futurists have emerged, and they can help to present future choices and outline the likely results of particular courses of action. However, it is up to us as citizens of democracies to make the choices themselves. Each of us can contribute vigorously to the worldwide effort to improve humanity's prospects, which could positively change the course of human history. Each of us can even choose this effort as our highest purpose in life and as our supreme challenge. Forecasting, especially when aided by mathematical analysis, has a definite but limited role in exploring the future. A wide range of other methods is available for thinking about the future and even for planning it. For example, a scenario provides a picture of what types of events and trends could occur in the more distant future if certain assumptions are made about what will happen in the near future; it illustrates various things that could happen. Scenarios and other futures techniques could help us to create a better future, by understanding better what might happen, especially if mathematical systems modelling is applied to develop some of their details. Having appropriate dreams and ideals about the future can also contribute to this process by providing an important motivating force. I have personally found my formulation of 'optimistic scenarios' to be linked closely with the development of my own visions. "Without vision, the people perish", according to The Bible.
Alan Mayne is a self-employed author, editor, personal computer specialist and researcher. Latest books: 'Into the 21st Century: A Handbook for a Sustainable Future' (co-author), 'Resources for the Future: An International Annotated Bibliography for the 21st Century' . editor of 'New Paradigms Newsletter'.
Harman, W. W. (2nd Ed. 1979) An Incomplete Guide to the Future. New York & London: W. W. Norton.
Explains and uses the approach of futures research to consider how we may be transforming ourselves. Examines the basic patterns of industrialised society, finds evidence for a massive change of direction, and discusses strategies for a viable future.
May, G. H. (1996) The Future Is Ours: Foreseeing, Managing and Creating the Future. London: Adamantine Press. ISBNs 0-7449-0130-8 & 0-7449-0131-6.
Written as an intermediate text-book for use in future-oriented modules within a range of university courses on futures studies, environmental studies, and other subjects. Examines some of the issues arising when we think about the future, grouped into the futures debate, ways of thinking about the future, and challenges and opportunities for the 21st century. Good outline and discussion of some of the methods of future thinking used today.
Wagar, W. W. (1992) The Next Three Futures: Paradigms of Things to Come. London: Adamantine Press. ISBN 0-7449-043-3.
Briefly summarises forward-looking thinking and writing from about 1965 to the date of publication. Advocates the integrative approach of 'alternative futures' thinking, and attempts to synthesise parallel approaches from several different disciplines into one holistic vision of the human future. Surveys the future possibilities already apparent, and aims to counter the all-too-common preoccupation with the present.
Slaughter, R (1995) The Foresight Principle: Cultural Recovery in the 21st Century. London: Adamantine Press. ISBNs 0-7449-0101-4 & 0-7449-0102-2.
Shows how our view of the future ahead becomes much clearer, even though still challenging, by developing the innate human capacity for foresight in several ways. Does not hide the very real dangers lying ahead, but provides a rational for greater use of foresight and several related strategies. Provides a broad, coherent framework for thinking about all dimensions of our current transition from the dominant Western culture of the last three centuries to the social innovations required to transcend our current dilemmas.
Kennedy, P. (2nd Ed. 1994) Preparing for the Twenty-First Century. London: Fontana Press. ISBN 0-00-686298-5.
Projects future general trends in world affairs and their impact in different parts of the world. Argues that demography and technology will drive the world into the 21st century, confronting us with much greater force than before. Considers how far we are as yet unprepared for the new millennium, together with some approaches to improving this situation.
Kinsman, F. (2nd Ed. 1992) Millennium: Towards Tomorrow's Society. London: Penguin Books, ISBN 0-14-14721-7, and New York: Viking Penguin.
Analyses the major social groupings in British society, each of which reflects different values, and shows how they are gradually changing and evolving. Considers three possible future scenarios for the UK and for the world as a whole in the light of these changes. Discusses the great potentiality for reinforcing the strengths and talents of the different groupings through mutual cooperation, and discusses what needs to be done and is being done in this direction.
Robertson, J. (2nd Ed. 1983) The Sane Alternative: A Choice of Futures. Self-published. ISBN 0-9505062-1-3.
Takes a holistic look at the human situation and its future prospects in terms of five scenarios of possible alternative futures. Favours the Sane Human Ecological (SHE) scenario, and outlines a possible approach to achieving something similar. The book combines breadth of vision, important new theory, practical guidance, and a wealth of information about relevant literature and projects.
McRae, H. (1995) The World in 2020: Power, Culture and Prosperity: A Vision of the Future. London: HarperCollinsPublishers. ISBN 0-00-638382-3.
Draws on available research to develop a radical new vision of the political, social, and economic changes in Europe, America, and East Asia during the next generation. Explores a range of controversial issues that will affect the futures of all of us. An illuminating, very readable vision of the key forces that will shape the human and global situation up to 2020.
Moorcroft, S. M. (Ed.) (1992) Visions for the 21st Century. London: Adamantine Press. ISBNs 0-7449-0052-2 & 0-7449-0053-0.
A challenging and stimulating collection of 21 essays by distinguished invited international contributors. Some of them look far into the future, while others address issues urgent in the 1990s and into the 21st century. These visions resonate with the interconnectedness and interdependence of the problems and issues that we face and provide a refreshing remedy for pessimism; the richness of their ideas is very stimulating.
Hewitt de Alcantára, C. (Ed.) (1996) Social Futures: Global Visions. Oxford & Cambridge, MA, USA: Blackwell. ISBNs 0-631-20230-7 & 0-631-20229-3.
Presents the future global visions of ten distinguished people. Topics discussed include: economic opportunity, civil society, and political liberty; the future of the state; positive aspects of community and dangers of fragmentation; affluence, poverty, and the idea of a post-scarcity society; and the social costs of modernisation.
Hassija, J. C. and Panjabi, M. (Eds.) (1993) Visions of a Better World. London: Brahma Kumaris World Spiritual University (UK). ISBNs 0-9637396-9-7 & 0-9637396-8-9.
Paints a living picture of what both famous people and hundreds of ordinary people in all parts of our planet want to see in tomorrow's world. The heart of the book is the Global Vision Statement, each of whose twelve points is featured with samples of the vast array of individual visions from which it was derived. The plans and actions, which participants were encouraged to develop, are surveyed, together with the ways in which people can work together towards a common goal.